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9 Dec 2016

Immigration vs Wages vs Employment - The Correlation : None ...

A recurring theme with Ukip and other Far Right Parties are the regular mantras;

THEY'RE DRIVING WAGES DOWN !

THEY'RE TAKING OUR JOBS !

Patent rubbish, of course, as we regularly state (and prove) on Social Media. So we thought it was time we collected the data in one place, as a single resource for you to use when busting this oft-quoted myth.

Portes and French Report on Employment (2005)

"A 1% increase in A8 Worker Registrations in local authorities is associated with a 0.09% increase in unemployment in that area. Not statistically significant."

Gilpin Report on Employment (2006)

"Not statistically significant."

Lemos and Portes Report on Employment (2008)

"Not statistically significant."

Lemos and Portes Report on Wage Distribution (2008)

"Not statistically significant."

Lemos and Portes Report on Average Wages (2008)

"Not statistically significant."

Lemos Report on Employment (2010)

"Not statistically significant."

Lemos Report on Wage Distribution (2010)

"A 1% increase in the A8 migrant working-age population ratio is associated with an increase of 3.9% in the wages of workers in the 60th percentile of the distribution."

Lemos Report on Average Wages (2010)

"A 1% increase in the A8 migrant working-age population ratio is associated with an increase in natives' average wage of approximately 3.4%."

Manacorda, Dustman, Nickell and Salaheen, Et Al (2011)

"Empirical research on the labour market effects of immigration to the UK finds little overall adverse effects of immigration on wages and employment for the UK-born. The less skilled are closer substitutes for immigrants than the more highly skilled. So any pressures from increased competition for jobs is more likely to be found among less skilled workers. But these effects are small."

Migration Advisory Committee Report on Employment (2012)

"Not statistically significant."

Die Welt, 2016

"Germany has the highest migrant population in the whole continent of Europe. Wages have averaged an increase of 2.9% over the last four years."

LSE Centre for Economic Performance (2016)

"In some areas, due to economic factors, there have been sharp falls in employment or wages since 2008. These are not areas with the largest increase in EU immigration. There is still no evidence of an overall negative impact of immigration on jobs, or wages."

Portes/NIESR (2016)

“The impact of migration on the wages of the UK-born has been about 1% - over a period of eight years.”

In other words, the research confirms what we already knew. The idea that immigration is the main or even a moderately important driver of low pay is simply not supported by the available evidence.


So .... Why are wages stagnating ?

Pay Squeeze, Austerity and Global economic factors have affected wages far higher than any other factor. In fact, even any small reduction in wages spotted is likely to have it's effect not on British natives, but unskilled migrant workers already here. (Migration Observatory)

And Politicians (yes, you Nigel) who claim the contrary are either so obsessed with immigration that they are blind to more important issues - or they are merely trying to divert attention from their failure to propose policy measures that would actually make a meaningful difference to the low paid.

Besides ... any excuse to post this recently updated classic ...

Far Right Watch Team

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